Friday, June 26, 2009

ECRI: WLI Growth Turns Positive

" ... end to the (US) recession is at hand":

June 26, 2009 (Reuters) - NEW YORK, A gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose, and its yearly growth rate turned positive, raising hopes that the end of the recession
is in sight, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to a 37-week high of 117.6 for the week ending June 19, from a downwardly revised 117.0 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate spiked to a 97-week high of 2.1 percent from minus 0.6 percent a week ago.

It was ECRI's highest yearly growth reading since the week ended August 10, 2007,
when it stood at 3.4 percent.

"Following a 28-week upturn, WLI growth has broken into positive territory for the first time in over 22 months -- an affirmation that an end to the recession is at hand," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The weekly index rose in the latest week because of stronger housing activity and investor confidence, Achuthan said.

And some charts, courtesy of ECRI.

Is the worst over?
Well, one may guess, by reading - how the people earn money and spend it? The commentary on Personal Income in US in May by Societe Generale at your disposal:
Personal Income was the surprise component- but the impressive jump was due to government payments stemming form the Economic Recovery Act of 2009. The surprise there was more the concentration of payments in one month. The social
payments were made in May and appear to be fully recorded in the month. Wage and salary income were down slightly while other sources of income posted modest gains.

You look at real spending chart below, courtesy of Societe Generale, and inquiring minds would ask where the money goes?
Savings. Why not spending?

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