Little Historical Support For Capex-Driven US Recovery?

Similar to guys at Goldman Sachs, the economists at BCA Research are also sceptical (excerpt from their BCA Premium Service in May 2010):

Various pundits have argued that capital spending could drive the economic recovery. While a Capex revival is underway, there is little historical support for a capex-driven recovery. With private consumer spending more than 70% of GDP, the pace of recovery hinges crucially on consumers.

Click on chart to enlarge, courtesy of BCA Research.

But the US consumer has its own challenges, with global rebalancing and structural change so difficult ...