Over the shorter term, in order to re-start the commodities price cycle, we see the need for restoration of positive GDP/capita growth rates. Although the data is not sufficiently robust to pinpoint the exact tipping point, there is a considerable body of evidence to suggest that commodity price increases over the past 10 years have a solid fundamental underpinning. We believe that it is also equally clear that volatile and directionless global growth rates over the next several years could imply similarly volatile short-term commodity prices within a long-term bullish 'channel'.Click on charts to enlarge, courtesy of Nomura.
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