Monday, January 03, 2011

Goldman Sees "Surge In Organic Growth" In US

This message from Jan Hatzius gets broad coverage today:

For the first time in five years, our one-year-ahead forecast for real GDP growth is well above the published consensus. The main reason is a slowdown in the pace of private sector deleveraging, which has become evident in a sharp improvement in the economic data despite the loss of growth support from fiscal policy and the inventory cycle. The enactment of the fiscal compromise has also helped.
Fed rate hikes should be "long way off", while the "surge in organic growth" does matter more than deficits ... click on charts to enlarge, courtesy of Goldman Sachs.

But here Jan Hatzius does the explaining of bullish details himself ...


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