Wednesday, February 23, 2011

If China Is Indeed Leading?

Already some time ago I noted that economists at Societe Generale believe that China drives the global manufacturing cycle now. If we look at China PMI now, the outlook would not be very encouraging, if the economists at Societe Generale are indeed right.

Click on chart to enlarge, courtesy of BNP Paribas.

Though, just not yet? The economists at BNP Paribas write today:
The US manufacturing sector continues to grow and outperform other sectors of the economy. February’s Richmond Fed manufacturing survey jumped to 25 from 18 in the month prior. Earlier this month the Philly Fed index surged to 35.9, the highest level since January of 2004, while the Empire manufacturing index improved to 15.4 following a 11.9 reading in the previous month. However, on an ISM-adjusted basis, all three indexes in February were slightly below the ISM index in January; supporting our forecast for a small decline in the Manufacturing ISM in February (see chart below).
Click on chart to enlarge, courtesy of BNP Paribas.

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