Monday, March 14, 2011

Japan & China Money Supply

It is not like I would ignore the tragedy in Japan, even more now with nuclear meltdown alert. While the printed stimulus will boost the recovery in short term, Japan remains the prime candidate for sovereign crisis too. No wonder that we have Second Biggest One-Day Decline Ever for Japan ETF (EWJ) from US perspective.
Well, to judge the health of the region, it worth looking at China too. The economists at BNP Paribas are writing today:
February new loans at RMB 535.6bn, down 23.5% y/y due to credit tightening.
M2 registered growth of 15.7% y/y, lower than the government’s target of 16% y/y.
M1 growth rebounded to 14.5% y/y, less than market expectations.
Household deposit growth fell to 12.3% y/y, due to negative real deposit rates.

Credit growth and money supply weakened further due to record high RRR slowing credit creation, the restrictive property control also slow asset reflation and leveraging process; though real rates remain negative, however tight liquidity situation approaching PBOC target of 16% M2 and 10% drop of credit, this suggest economic slowdown in 2H and stabilization of inflation, asset prices.
Click on charts to enlarge, courtesy of BNP Paribas.
Does this matter when Japan is going to flood markets?

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