Saut: Bear Market Rally?

Jeff Saut, the respectful strategist at Raymond James has posted his weekly missive, see the latest version here. Last week Jeff suggested this.

His call for this week (but read the full missive):

We are in Orlando at Raymond James’ 30th Annual Institutional Investors Conference. There are more than 600 portfolio managers here from around the world, as well as more than 300 companies presenting at our conference. Manifestly, there will be some good investment ideas gleaned from this conference. In the interim, it is day 19 in the “selling stampede” and such stampedes rarely go more than 25 sessions before exhausting themselves on the downside. Meanwhile, our oversold indicator is more oversold than it was at the October/November “lows.” Therefore, we begin this week as we began last week, suggesting that the only question is, “does this stampede end with a whimper (selling dry up), or a bang (selling climax). While only time will tell, we continue to think the nadir is near. Indeed, we have opined that the bottoming sequence should see corporate bonds bottom first. They did in November. Then copper should bottom. It did, as can be seen in the nearby chart from our friends at thechartstore.com. Next should be stocks. The real question will be, “Is it a bear market rally, or something more?”

Who knows?