Monday, March 16, 2009

Saut: Being There?

Jeff Saut, the respectful strategist at Raymond James has posted his weekly missive, see the latest version here. Last week Jeff suggested this.

His call for this week (but read the full missive) in very short:

As for the overall stock market, while it's still too early to tell if this is a bear-market rally or something more, I agree with The Chart Store: “While our sense is that the rally has more to go on the upside in the weeks to come, we feel it is still too early to say the final bottom has been put in place".
As to me, if we go below 740 for S&P500, I would consider increasing probability of selling climax. Remember, that this current rally was started in bear market by unusually extreme bullishness in option market. The bear leg, unfortunately, would be confirmed below 700, and 666 ... However, we should see a decisive move below 740 first, and there are, obviously, people who know (and who paid?) much more than me! So far, I miss the fear and subsequent selling climax for "clean table", and the banking spin fundamentally is so dirty with new media approaches (via internal memos). Well, but financials are not my concern anyway, as majority of them are traded as long term options. My eyes are locked-in at technology, the safe heaven, among others? Among others rather weak crude oil (Brent, please) appears so suspect in the equity rally.
It is also not very smart be overly bearish here, as there is some value in longer term, and the macro background does not seem very "normal" either. But the wise Keynes was not relying very much on long term hopes?
Above 805 I should be scrambling my ...

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