Thursday, April 23, 2009

Why I Do Watch The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI)?

Look at the presentation by ECRI, especially the slides that contain Weekly Leading Index ... Click on picture to enlarge, courtesy of ECRI.


And watch the recent appearance by ECRI' s Achuthan at ABC's Nightline ... with "Green Shoots Or Yellow Straw?". But beware the propaganda about bank earnings, missing stock markets (S&P500 and DJ EuroStoxx50 are still negative year-to-day), consumer consumption strength assuming the immense government stimulus to prevent collapse ... Well, US is not the global economy, but ca. 25% of final consumer demand ...

Do not hope! This may be worst case scenario on the other side of Atlantic!

3 comments:

  1. Thanks for this, but missed propaganda on bank earnings (must have been well disguised!). Did hear him say banks won't do better until home prices firm, but that seems reasonable. Am I missing something?

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  2. The video was not only about HIM, I noticed one lady speaking as an "expert", and another lady speaking as a "background commentator". And the "background commentator" mentioned words like "good earning by banks" ...

    As to HIM, banks are indeed suffering a lot due to home prices, but there are more time-bombs ticking, like revolving consumer credit due to rising unemployment in general and commercial real estate. Well, and if we miss somehow to recover pretty soon, the corporate defaults and bankruptcies will cost bank equity too ...

    Don't worry, Achuthan sounds reasonable ... :)

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  3. Sorry, there was probably in the video one more lady to mention - the one interviewing Achuthan? Well, but it is not really about that ...

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