Thursday, October 29, 2009

Another Text-Book Case - US GDP 3q2009 Flash Estimate

BEA reports today:
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: THIRD QUARTER 2009 (ADVANCE ESTIMATE)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent.
Let' s look beneath the headline:
1.66% contribution from cars via government stimulated Cash For Clunkers
0.5% from government stimulated Housing
...government itself contributed 0.48% to the growth.
So, the headline of real GDP was improved by analyst miss on deflator, which was reported 0.8% vs 1.3% estimate... err, nominal GDP (that serves the nominal debt) was smaller than expected?

Markets of risky assets liked it today....

And here are compilations of opinions by WSJ Real Time Economics and NYT Economix ...

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