Monday, September 06, 2010

Everyone Sees Sour Sentiment To Push Equities Higher?

Also Tobias Levkovich, the US equity strategist at Citigroup Global Markets, scribed last Friday a bullish view on late-year rally, among other factors that may fuel the upside run:
While investors fret about earnings trends, economic uncertainty, unemployment woes, home prices, taxation policies, European austerity and sustained outflows from equity mutual funds, to name a few concerns, several indicators argue for a stock market resurgence including sentiment and valuation indicators. Indeed, our unique Panic/Euphoria Model dipped into “panic” territory three months ago and this predictive measure argues for a 90% chance of market gains within six months.

After just 3 days of a stunning rally, the sentiment may be not that sour anymore. While the market commentators cannot stop cheering about coincident and lagging indicators, the leading indicators via US non-manufacturing ISM survey and ECRI's US WLI do not provide much of rational optimism. Though, European sentiment remains quite resilient so far ... despite anti-stressed credit markets.

This picture came via email and the original source of it is not known to me. But, if prepared accurately, the following chart should not inflate bullish perceptions. Click on chart to enlarge.

Just a game ...

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