Deutsche Bank: Germany's Shaky Export-Reliant Sectors

I have been obsessed with "export mania" for some time now. Well, just look at Japan, Germany, Korea, Taiwan, China in the last, let' s say, 6 months ... and the message should be clear! Is it not?

Deutsche Bank has a very revealing note on German exports by sectors today:

Germany’s economy depends heavily on exports. In a global economic upswing this is a blessing, as Germany may then benefit from economic growth in other countries. At present, however, what was a blessing is now becoming a curse. Export markets are cooling and this weighs heavily on the German economy.

Not all sectors are affected to the same extent, though, as export shares vary among different industries. In manufacturing, a generally export-intensive sector, exports accounted for an average 46% of total sales in 2008. The chart shows the relevant figures for Germany’s major industries. Just how important the state of the export markets is for the German economy is revealed by a comparison of order intake in its export-dependent and less export-dependent sectors. There is a clearly negative correlation between a sector’s export intensity and its overall order intake over the last year. Export-intensive industries are bearing the brunt of the current global downswing.

Chart courtesy of Deutsche Bank.

Too strong reliance on exports may be a disaster too ...