See for UPDATES below ...
U.S. publishes "the market mover #1" at 13:30 GMT - Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). Analyst estimates range from 400k -750k loss according to Reuters. Similar data provided by Bloomberg, Dow Jones ... Consensus economist estimate is at ca. 525k loss, depending on source for that.
It is assumed that employment is a lagging indicator. Assuming current global consumption mess, I doubt that a sustainable recovery of economy is possible (excluding the fiscal stimulus) before employment stabilizes...
Assuming the "ADP wild guess" on Wednesday, that came in actually better than estimated by analysts, and weekly jobless claims that were actually worse than estimated by analysts, and the market reaction ... Errr, the market may be ready to shrug off 550k loss in January and neglect negative revisions for previous months, especially if sweeteners are offered, but I was wrong last month ...
UPDATE @ 15:45 (13:45 GMT): BLS reports 598k loss in January 2009, December revised 53k worse, November revised again 13k worse ...all in all, January report (including revisions for previous 2 months) is 664k loss, much worse than estimated by analysts ... but markets rather calm so far. German DAX index is even trying the upside.
UPDATE 2 @ 15:58 (13:58 GMT): Bespoke has a good post here.
UPDATE 3 @ 22:10 (20:10 GMT): here is the list of links with commentary on job report:
WSJ Real Time Economics compilation of opinions
Calculated Risk with Employment Diffusion Index
HSBC via Across the Curve
Paul Krugman' s politicos
Equities spike to upside (S&P500 up 2.10% now, but we were almost 3% up just 30 minutes ago ...) led by banks, KBW Banks up 11%, see more here ... well, appears to be very little to do with " fundamentals".
U.S. publishes "the market mover #1" at 13:30 GMT - Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). Analyst estimates range from 400k -750k loss according to Reuters. Similar data provided by Bloomberg, Dow Jones ... Consensus economist estimate is at ca. 525k loss, depending on source for that.
It is assumed that employment is a lagging indicator. Assuming current global consumption mess, I doubt that a sustainable recovery of economy is possible (excluding the fiscal stimulus) before employment stabilizes...
Assuming the "ADP wild guess" on Wednesday, that came in actually better than estimated by analysts, and weekly jobless claims that were actually worse than estimated by analysts, and the market reaction ... Errr, the market may be ready to shrug off 550k loss in January and neglect negative revisions for previous months, especially if sweeteners are offered, but I was wrong last month ...
UPDATE @ 15:45 (13:45 GMT): BLS reports 598k loss in January 2009, December revised 53k worse, November revised again 13k worse ...all in all, January report (including revisions for previous 2 months) is 664k loss, much worse than estimated by analysts ... but markets rather calm so far. German DAX index is even trying the upside.
UPDATE 2 @ 15:58 (13:58 GMT): Bespoke has a good post here.
UPDATE 3 @ 22:10 (20:10 GMT): here is the list of links with commentary on job report:
WSJ Real Time Economics compilation of opinions
Calculated Risk with Employment Diffusion Index
HSBC via Across the Curve
Paul Krugman' s politicos
Equities spike to upside (S&P500 up 2.10% now, but we were almost 3% up just 30 minutes ago ...) led by banks, KBW Banks up 11%, see more here ... well, appears to be very little to do with " fundamentals".
UPDATE 4 @ 23:20 (21:20 GMT): S&P500 finishes 2.7% higher, the financials lead the pack (sharpest rally occurs in bear market) with KBW Banks up almost 12%, S&P500 Financial sector up 8.13% ... this is against the jobless data, as how they will pay off their debts? The real explanation is in the previous post, but Obama' s Kiss has been downgraded some time ago? Yeaap, and the US 10 year Treasury yield rose just 8 bps ... Irresponsible policies?
UPDATE 5 @ 7-Feb-2009 14:25 (12:25 GMT): Dean Baker writes that jobs report is "worse than it looks"...
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