Business Council's Survey Of Chief Executives Vs Insitute For Supply Management

There is an interesting story at Dow Jones Newswires today, some excerpts here (my emphasis):

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The recession will continue for the rest of 2009, say U.S. purchasing managers and CEOs, although the view from the corner office shows more improvement than does the outlook in the supply room.
The semiannual outlook survey released Tuesday by the Institute for Supply Management showed expectations for the remainder of 2009 have weakened in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors compared with sentiments expressed in December 2008, when the ISM did its last semiannual survey. "The December outlook may have been too optimistic because respondents had not fully gotten their arms around the problems in the economy," said Norbert Ore, who supervised the manufacturing segment of the ISM survey. In particular, the economy deteriorated faster and market prices became more chaotic, adding to uncertainty in early 2009.
The gloomier tone of the ISM outlook contrasts with the improved expectations reported Tuesday in the Business Council's Survey of Chief Executives, done with the Conference Board.

Ooouch! This reminds me what James Montier, the highly rated strategist at Societe Generale, wrote in October 21st, 2008:

Apart from corporate managers, the only group of people who don’t seem to expect a recession next year are the analysts.

or this is even better hitting the nail:

Memo to analysts: management haven’t got a clue. They don’t know any better than the rest of us. One of the great delusions of our industry is that we all expect corporate managers to know more than we do. Whilst their knowledge may be deeper than ours, it certainly doesn’t translate into a better ability to forecast the future.

Well, I do not know - does this applies today, but just came in my stupid mind ...
The story at Dow Jones Newswires, however, ends on more optimistic note:

Lately, economists have begun to see signs the economy's decline is easing. Indeed, the ISM's own reports on business activity within the factory and non manufacturing sectors showed improvement in April.
"The monthly indicators are more optimistic," said Ore, which is a good sign for the second half of 2009.

Norbert Ore supervised the manufacturing segment of the ISM survey, according to Dow Jones.
Well, all ISM indices still pointed to contraction (including sub-indices), but at a slower pace (improvement in the second derivative of contraction), in my view ... but media may be spinning. Or me?