Monday, May 04, 2009

Saut: Cognitive Dissonance

Jeff Saut, the respectful strategist at Raymond James has posted his weekly missive, see the latest version here. Last time on this blog Jeff suggested this.
His call for this week (but read the full story) in very short:
The longest “buying stampede” chronicled in my notes is 41 sessions. Today is either session 39, if you measure from the intraday low of March 6th (666 basis the S&P 500), or session 38 if you measure from the March 9th closing low of 676.53. In either event, we have made a lot of money over the last eight weeks and continue to think the trick from here will be to keep that money. Longer-term, we are pretty optimistic. Near-term, we are cautious. If I had to buy something today it would be the emerging markets like Brazil since most of the emerging markets didn’t make new reaction lows in March like the S&P did. Moreover, I think they will be the leaders in the next bull market.

Consider as a probability!

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