Grantham: The Last Hurrah And Seven Lean Years

Jeremy Grantham of GMO is out with its quarterly letter. I look at the equity market in the US, led by "financial hero" once again today, and it feels I am done ...

Grantham has, in my view, these key things to say this time around:

Investor confidence is still fragile, and should we get a series of particularly shocking data points, which, in the unique position we find ourselves is quite possible (say, one out of three), then confidence could crack one more time and the market could go to a new low before the major anticipatory rally I’m describing. (This would make the current rally a short-term head fake.) In a rally to 1000 or so, the normal commercial bullish bias of the market will of course reassert itself, and everyone and his dog will be claiming it as the next major multi-year bull market. But such an event – a true lasting bull market – is most unlikely. A large rally here is far more likely to prove a last hurrah … a codicil on the great bullishness we have had since the early 90s or, even in some respects, since the early 80s. The rally, if it occurs, will set us up for a long, drawn-out disappointment not only in the economy, but also in the stock markets of the developed world.

and this:

To be honest, I believe that most of you readers are likely to be grandparents before you see a new inflation-adjusted high on the S&P.

Some other people I respect do not sound very bullish either, so I decided to sit on hands for a while, but it is trading environment:
James Montier: A Suckers' Rally or The Real Deal? @ FT Alphaville
Doug Kass: What a Piece of Work Is Buffett! @ TheStreet.com
Todd Harrisson: Randoms: Banking on More Capital @ Minyanville.com
Jeff Saut: Cognitive Dissonance @ Raymond James

still, there is room to get really exhausted...