Friday, August 07, 2009

Dow Theory Bull?

Dow Theory practitioners were still arguing about the bull market validity this week. According to WSJ MarketBeat:

Raymond James’ Jeffrey Saut, another Dow Theory watcher, maintains that the key level for the Dow Jones Transports is not the June high. Rather, he says it was the high of 3717.26 which occured on Jan. 6, the same day the Dow hit 9015.10, which remained the yearly high until it broke that tape again on Monday. The fact that the DJTA and the DJIA peaked on the same day, and that those were the highs for the year, fixed the Jan. 6 numbers in Saut’s mind as the data points to watch.
“I’m trading this market like it’s a new bull market,” Saut said in a brief chat. “But for me to call it a new bull market according to Dow Theory you’re going to have to better the Jan. 6 highs of the transports and the Dow,” he said. That doesn’t look like it’s going to happen today. The DJTA was down about 1.7% at last glance, to about 3613.
Despite his belief in the bull market signal he says he saw July 23, Russell remains somewhat cautious about the recent run-up in shares. Mostly, because he says sentiment never really hit the bleak tone that signals a true bear-market bottom, in which “people are disgusted with the stock market.” He added that just a couple months after the March lows “everybody was optimistic.”
I watch my screens at NY cash closing:
DJIA 9370.07 at close
DJTransport 3749.58 at close
Confirmed or false?

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