Friday, August 07, 2009

Striking Parallels?

I had no intention to post anymore today. However, I went through the latest research, and the latest note by David Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, catches my eye with a chart:

Well, adjust please for starting dates on the charts, but there seem to be striking parallels?

Well, there are many factors in play, like productivity growth, and also debt leverage ...
Calculated Risk has a very rational approach to the analysis of employment in the US, including the commentary on the alike employment chart above. Mish had an "Austrian translation" of Rosenberg's take ...
WSJ Real Time Economics compiled a long list of opinions ...
However, I would like to stress the latest media appearance by ECRI. ECRI informed us already in March that US business cycle is turning around. They also predicted the end of US recession already in April. Now, here is a nice video appearance with a summary of key messages, here is the latest release on US WLI, and here is the WARNING about the US inflation ...

Did you notice the reversal in USD today? This rather smells like too strong growth according to Merrill Lynched...
Probably, reassess the approach? There seems to be no dark cloud covers in US financials ... at least, so far! Retail, Financials, Real estate still make a bit of spin? Or I cannot see that far in the future?

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for this. My sense is that those charts and the ECRI recovery view can co-exist for a while. ECRI looks out up to a year, while the ominous patterns in those charts take many years to play out. So, recovery now, but keep a close eye on the horizon, no?

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