Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Bond And Models

It is not about James Bond. It is about the "New York January Asset Allocation" presentation by Tim Bond, the head of asset allocation at Barclays Capital, where he mentions, among all other bullish things, the demographic shift in an unfavorable direction for financial asset valuations.

Click on charts to enlarge, courtesy of Barclays Capital.

Despite the models forecasting the drop in CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings) at least 2 times, modelled profit recovery of circa 30% (already priced in?) and current "credit regime" should be bullish for equities?

No comments:

Post a Comment