Thursday, March 25, 2010

Closing Expectation Gaps And Getting Real With Options ...

I am back from Spring break ...

There are much more of a thing to do and share, but this appears to me the issue of the day. While watching the Michael Mauboussin, the Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management and the author of “Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition,” speaking with James Surowiecki of The New Yorker ...

... I should admit that I enjoy reading the strategy pieces by Michael, click for them here. However, there are two issues that I am keeping in my mind. First, the minor issue, as his colleague Bill Miller, was nominated with THE 2008 ASSHAT OF THE YEAR AWARD by brutish "The Fly".

BUT, the BIG issue, as I recall a fascinating piece by Michael? Written back on 23rd June 1999 ...

Click on picture to enlarge, courtesy of Credit Suisse First Boston. I would like to share the whole wisdom, but no permission ...



... whereby we all got real by "Using Real Options in Security Analysis", as the historic context was challenging that time:

... a growing gap between how the market is pricing some businesses— especially those fraught with uncertainty—and the values generated by traditional valuation models such as discounted cash flow (DCF). Managers and investors instinctively understand that selected market valuations reflect a combination of known businesses plus a value for opportunities that are to come. Real options— a relatively new analytical tool—bridge this gap between hard numbers and intuition.
Still thinking about the issue of brain damage ... and gigantic error of pessimism.

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