Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Indeed, Market Technicals Appear Bullish

Despite all the bearish news and views recently, markets appear to have discounted (let's assume) and look pretty bullish technically:

Guys at the Think B.I.G. have, as always, nice charts: S&P 500 Back Above 50-DMA and Breadth Back Near Bull Market Highs .
Trader's Narrative looks at Lowry Research Update: Cyclical Bull Market Intact
The Fly brings the attitude with Non-Stop Casino

(For no particular reason?) the words by James Montier come in mind:
The psychological literature suggests that we have cognitive limits to our capacity to handle information. Indeed we seem to make the same decision regardless of the amount of information we have at our disposal. Beyond pretty low amounts of information, anything we gather generally seems to increase our confidence rather than improve our accuracy. So more information isn’t better information, it is what you do with it, rather than how much you collect that matters.
Do we fail "to learn the two most common behavioural traits ... over-optimism and over-confidence"?
We all love a story. Stock brokers spin stories which act like sirens drawing investors onto the rocks. More often than not these stories hold out the hope of growth, and investors find the allure of growth almost irresistible. The only snag is that all too often that growth fails to materialise.

Relying on technicals only is like believing in Efficient Market Hypothesis.

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