Wednesday, March 10, 2010

US Small Business Simply Does Not Get This Rise Of Lycans

The US government' s "Wards of the State" are on big mission today again. Of course, there is a hope in case of short squeeze! Did we have this rise of Lycans already before? US banks are ready for subprime credit again! Well, we have to close still today, but there is clear attempt to break out into new recovery highs. For an up-to-date chart of KBW Bank index click here. Click on chart to enlarge, courtesy of

However, the small business in the US simply does not get this recovery, according to NFIB Small Business Confidence Survey. Societe Generale notes this morning:
Small business optimism lost 1.3 point in February, falling back to the December level of 88.0. The persistence of readings below 90 points is unprecedented in survey history, and shows that unlike other sectors of the economy, small businesses are still far from seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

Well, but small business generates majority of what? Jobs? GDP? What else? Or not anymore? Click on chart to enlarge, courtesy of Societe Generale.

Back to bull market anniversary. Tobias Levkovich, the US equity strategist at Citigroup Global Markets, wrote yesterday:
We believe upside potential remains. Given that the yr/yr recovery in equity prices relative to 10-year bond returns has been the best since the 1940s (see Figure 1), many investors believe the opportunity has passed. Yet, one does need to look at the 1930s for a moment and recognize that after the plunge in 2008/09, the ability to recover can be quite substantive and more lasting than may commonly be believed. Thus, it may be misleading to think that the upside appreciation potential from here is limited.Admittedly, this is more of a trading scenario since the outlook into 2011 does remain clouded and it is plausible that further gains may face additional challenges by late 2010.
Click on chart to enlarge, courtesy of Citigroup Global Markets.

For an alternative view read this one on "black flags" ...
Paul Samuelson put it best when he opined “Investing should be dull, like watching paint dry or grass grow”.

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