Thursday, May 05, 2011

Beauty Of 5 Standard Deviations In This Real World

Felix Salmon has the de-coding story today:

In a normally-distributed world, 5-standard-deviation moves never happen. In this world, however, such moves can happen even when there’s no news at all. (Reuters, for what it’s worth, blames “concerns about economic growth and monetary tightening”, which is code for “we have no idea why this is happening, or whether there even is a reason”.)

Click on chart of "first month Brent Crude Oil futures" to enlarge, courtesy of Reuters.

No comments:

Post a Comment