Monday, May 09, 2011

Real Interest Rates And Credit Growth In Asia

The last days are traded in the sign of Greek-out, but for the sake of change we travel to Asia today.

This is a nice depiction of real growth drivers in Asia too. You simply arrange the God's Work with negative real rates, and credits simply fly, as economists at Deutsche Bank are writing:

Declining, and often negative, real interest rates against a backdrop of strong growth provide strong support for credit growth, which is rising in most Asian economies.

Click on chart to enlarge, courtesy of Deutsche Bank.

While I am not so sure that "strong growth provide strong support for credit growth", I would rather think the other way round. However, this seems to be more important now:

China is a key exception. Despite negative real interest rates, credit growth has slowed for most of the last 18 months after the surge in lending in support of the government’s stimulus program in early 2009. Interest rates do not play an important role in allocating or managing credit growth in China.

And once again, if you doubt the first paragraph, can you trust the second quote?

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