Thursday, January 15, 2009

Equities: Should "Lemmings" Have The Last Chance?

Do you know the Lemmings' myth/metaphor?

We have had major "bears" speaking recently, e.g., Edwards, Roubini etc.

It really feels like "perfect storm" and just couple of days before Lehman's collapse.

Should the "lemmings" have the last chance? Why not? This would be according to the "rule of maximum pain and frustration". So, the "NEW Lehman alike, but positive event" may trigger a real relief rally, or something else I have no clue ... Is it not clear that enormous monetary and fiscal efforts should bring us out of this slump?

If we hold above 815-820 area for S&P500 ... We need nice recovery! It is possible we make a stunning rally into 900 area, but note that former support area 850-855 is now resistance... As the remaining "lemmings" have joined the "heavy train wreck in motion", the "perfect storm" may start. Just a phantasm!

Consider as a probability! Discipline around 815 area!

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