US Retail Shocker: In Nominal Terms Worse Than "New Argentina" In November

Busy evacuation from "risky markets" yesterday derailed me to make a post about US retail sales in December. These figures were definitely one of major contributors, among all others like banks, euro-zone data, sovereign ratings, Beige Book, Nortel Networks etc., to the weakness in markets. Note, that was a flash estimate for US retail sales, may (will) be revised later ...

However, the flash estimate for total retail sales in nominal terms was said to be plunging 2.7% on month, that was 2 times worse than consensus estimate by economists. So, the nominal figure for retail sales is collapsing by almost 8% on year ... You get it? 8% on year! Would you expect such a figure from an economy that is supposed to be "developed and stable major economy" that is (still) carrying AAA credit rating?

Chart courtesy of BNP Paribas.



The "New Argentina", as per Krugman's definition, recorded 15.1% collapse of retail sales on year in real terms, if we adjust it roughly with year on year CPI of 11.8% in November, so the nominal plunge would be ca. 3-4% on year ... Well, that was in November, we do not know what December figures bring! Wait until 30th of January.

Well, Americans are saving, at least statistics are suggesting that ...

For more detailed reports on US retail sales, see analysis by BNP Paribas and Danske ...