Fundamentally, I dislike USD just because U.S. is doing "whatever and at any cost" to manage the bail-out for themselves. Unprecedented combination of aggressive monetary and fiscal policies may be a deadly cocktail, as private money sits on sidelines and digests the situation... And then there are suspects of "global competitive devaluation" race, USD among them. We are in a situation where we do not have any experience, so any statement here is a wild guess.
In short-term any market stress may be in USD favour, as a major funding and zero-interest-rate currency today has a potential to appreciate, just because of de-leveraging ... And some may assume that U.S. has better chances for the growth recovery, just because of doing "whatever and at any cost" ...
However, bank analysts, probably, feel better to make bets. The analysts at Swedish SEB wrote yesterday (click on picture to enlarge) :
Volatility is very high, so it is probably better to be careful with risks ...
No comments:
Post a Comment